The past week was marked by heightened volatility across global markets, driven primarily by the release of US inflation data and ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East. March CPI showed a noticeable acceleration in headline inflation due to rising energy prices, while core inflation remained relatively moderate. This combination has left market participants reassessing the Federal Reserve’s policy path, as persistent inflation pressures are weighed against expectations of a gradual economic slowdown.
At the same time, the oil market experienced sharp fluctuations. Prices initially surged amid fears of supply disruption, before retreating as news of a ceasefire reduced immediate concerns. Nevertheless, uncertainty surrounding key supply routes continues to support elevated price levels. This interplay between geopolitics and inflation remains the central theme influencing currencies, commodities, and digital assets.
In the coming week, investor attention will focus on geopolitical headlines, central bank signals, and a series of important macroeconomic releases from China, including GDP, industrial production, and retail sales. These data points may influence both commodity demand expectations and overall market sentiment.
As of the close on Friday, April 10, 2026, EUR/USD was trading near 1.1720, Brent crude near 95.20, gold at 4,787, silver at 76.48, Bitcoin at 72,961, and Ethereum at 2,245. These levels serve as baseline reference points for the forecast.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair ended the week near 1.1720, showing moderate resilience following the US inflation report. Although stronger headline inflation initially supported the US dollar, the softer core reading limited further upside, allowing the euro to stabilize. The pair remains sensitive to shifts in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, as well as to broader risk sentiment.
If geopolitical tensions escalate, the dollar may regain strength as a safe-haven asset, putting pressure on the pair. Conversely, a calmer environment combined with stable inflation expectations could allow EUR/USD to maintain its upward bias. Immediate resistance is located in the 1.1740–1.1785 zone, with a potential extension toward 1.1830 if upward momentum strengthens. On the downside, support is seen around 1.1675 and 1.1630, with a deeper decline potentially targeting 1.1585.
Baseline view: the pair remains neutral-to-bullish while holding above 1.1675.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude closed the week near 95.20 after experiencing significant volatility. Prices surged earlier in the week above the 110 level before correcting lower as markets reassessed the immediacy of supply disruptions. Despite the pullback, oil remains supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and concerns regarding supply routes.
The market is likely to remain highly sensitive to news developments, with the potential for rapid price swings in either direction. If tensions intensify or supply risks re-emerge, Brent could attempt to retest higher levels. Resistance is located near 98.30 and 101.00, with a possible move toward 105.00 in the event of renewed bullish momentum. On the downside, support is found at 94.20 and 90.40, with a further decline potentially extending toward 87.50.
Baseline view: neutral with a bullish bias while prices remain above 94.20.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold ended the week near 4,787, maintaining proximity to recent highs. The metal continues to benefit from geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns, although its upward movement is being moderated by uncertainty surrounding the timing and scale of future Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The balance between safe-haven demand and interest rate expectations will remain the key driver. A resurgence in risk aversion could support further gains, while a stabilization in markets may limit upside potential. Resistance is located around 4,820 and 4,888, with a possible extension toward 4,950. Support levels are seen at 4,754 and 4,720, with a deeper correction potentially targeting 4,685.
Baseline view: neutral-to-bullish while gold remains above 4,754.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver closed near 76.48, demonstrating strong upward momentum during the week. Compared to gold, silver continues to exhibit higher volatility, driven by both safe-haven demand and expectations related to industrial activity.
The metal is approaching an important resistance zone, and a sustained move above current levels could trigger an acceleration in upward momentum. However, given its sensitivity to broader market sentiment, silver may also experience sharp pullbacks. Resistance is located at 77.00 and 77.80, with a potential move toward 79.50 if the bullish trend continues. Support is seen at 74.90 and 72.93, with a possible decline toward 71.00 in case of increased selling pressure.
Baseline view: bullish while silver holds above 74.90.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin ended the week near 72,961, consolidating just below a key resistance zone around 73,000–74,000. The market appears to be stabilizing after recent gains, with momentum remaining cautiously positive but lacking a clear breakout signal.
Institutional demand and ETF-related flows continue to provide underlying support, though confirmation of further upside will depend on a sustained move above resistance. If Bitcoin manages to break higher, it could target the 75,500 region. On the downside, support is located at 71,440 and 70,500, with a deeper correction potentially extending toward 68,850.
Baseline view: mildly bullish while Bitcoin remains above 70,500.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Ethereum closed near 2,245, following a similar consolidation pattern to Bitcoin. While the broader trend has improved, Ethereum remains more dependent on overall market sentiment and tends to follow Bitcoin’s directional moves.
A breakout in Bitcoin would likely support further gains in Ethereum, while continued consolidation may keep the asset within its current range. Resistance is located at 2,257 and 2,270, with a potential move toward 2,320 if bullish momentum develops. Support levels are seen at 2,177 and 2,150, with a possible decline toward 2,106 if selling pressure increases.
Baseline view: neutral-to-bullish while Ethereum holds above 2,177.
Conclusion
The week ahead is expected to remain dynamic, with markets driven primarily by geopolitical developments, inflation expectations, and key macroeconomic data. Oil prices will continue to play a central role in shaping inflation outlooks, while precious metals will reflect shifts in risk sentiment. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin remains at a key technical juncture, with Ethereum likely to follow its lead.
Overall, the baseline scenario points to continued range-bound trading with elevated volatility. Breakouts from established support and resistance zones may define the next directional moves across all instruments.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
