Economic indicators play a crucial role in fundamental analysis and forecasting medium- and long-term trends, whether it concerns currencies or the prices of major exchange-traded commodities. Among numerous indicators, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI), and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stand out for their significance and wide application. These indices provide vital information about various aspects of the economic state and directly influence Central Banks' decisions regarding interest rates and monetary policy as a whole. Therefore, understanding these indices allows financial market participants to make well-informed decisions, whether it is investment, trading, or strategic planning.
CPI – Primary Indicator of Inflation
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the key economic indicators used to measure the change in prices of goods and services consumed by households. It represents a weighted average assessment of price changes for a basket of goods and services over a certain period. Thus, the CPI index is one of the main parameters for assessing the level of inflation in the economy.
Calculating the CPI involves several steps:
– Choosing a base period: Establishing a starting point for prices to which future prices will be compared.
– Selecting a basket of goods and services: Determining the set of goods and services that will be used for the index calculation. This set reflects household consumption habits.
– Weighting prices: Assigning a weight to each good and service based on its share in the average household expenditure.
– Collecting price data: Prices for goods and services are collected from various sources, including stores, supermarkets, online shops, and other outlets.
– Calculating the index: Current prices are compared to base period prices, and the CPI is computed based on this comparison.
Varieties of the CPI Index. There are several varieties of the CPI index, each with its own characteristics and used for different purposes:
– Headline CPI: Reflects the change in the cost of all goods and services included in the consumer basket, including food, clothing, housing, transportation, education, healthcare, entertainment expenses, and many other goods and services consumed by the population.
– Core CPI: Excludes volatile components such as food, energy, cigarettes, and alcohol to provide a more stable and accurate price dynamic. This indicator is used to determine core inflation, which is a more reliable indicator of long-term economic trends.
– CPI for Urban Consumers (CPI-U): Covers expenditures of all urban households.
– CPI for Wage Earners (CPI-W): Focuses on expenditures of households where the main income comes from production work.
Importance of the CPI for the Financial Market. For traders and other financial market participants, tracking the CPI index is critically important. The CPI is the primary indicator of inflation. Therefore, Central Banks such as the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and others use CPI data to make monetary policy decisions. A high level of inflation in a country can lead to an increase in interest rates, affecting the cost of loans, government bond yields, and the exchange rate of the national currency against other currencies. Thus, CPI indicators are an essential component of comprehensive fundamental analysis, allowing financial market participants to make informed decisions and adapt their strategies according to the current economic situation. They affect investor strategies, risk appetites, and the degree of interest in various safe-haven assets.
PPI – Leading Indicator of Inflation
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is one of the most important economic indicators used to measure changes in the prices of goods and services produced by national manufacturers. The PPI is a leading indicator of inflation because changes in production-level prices often precede changes in consumer-level prices (CPI).
Calculating the PPI involves several key steps:
– Choosing a base period: Establishing a starting point for prices to which future prices will be compared.
– Selecting a set of goods and services: Determining a basket of goods and services produced in the economy.
– Weighting prices: Assigning a weight to each good and service based on its share in production.
– Collecting price data: Prices for goods and services are gathered from various enterprises and manufacturers.
– Calculating the index: Current prices are compared to base period prices, and the PPI is computed based on this comparison.
Varieties of the PPI Index. There are several varieties of the PPI index, each used for different purposes and having its own characteristics:
– All Commodities PPI: Includes all goods and services produced in the economy.
– Intermediate Goods PPI: Focuses on goods used in the production process but not intended for final consumption.
– Raw Materials PPI: Reflects changes in prices for primary raw materials.
– Finished Goods PPI: Measures changes in prices for products ready for sale to end consumers.
Like the CPI, the PPI is very important for analysing the financial market and developing medium- and long-term trading strategies. As already mentioned, the PPI is a leading indicator and is used to forecast consumer inflation. Therefore, it is actively used by Central Banks when making monetary policy decisions. PPI data is also very useful for investors and traders in the stock and commodity markets because it helps them assess changes in production costs of companies, which is important for analysing their profitability and competitiveness.
PMI – Assessment of the Present and Future Economy
Another important economic indicator is the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). It is used to assess the current state and forecast future activity in the manufacturing and services sectors of a country's economy or an association, for example, the Eurozone countries. The PMI is based on surveys of purchasing managers and reflects changes in areas such as new orders, production, employment, deliveries, and inventories.
The calculation of the PMI proceeds as follows: Purchasing managers of companies respond to questions about current business conditions. The questions concern aspects such as the volume of new orders, production level, employment, delivery times, and inventory volumes. The responses are then processed and converted into index values. Each aspect is assigned a weight based on its importance. The PMI value is calculated as a weighted average of the values of all aspects. A value above 50.0 is considered positive and indicates growth in activity, while a value below 50.0 is negative and indicates a decline in the economy.
Varieties of the PMI Index. There are several varieties of the PMI index, each used for different purposes and having its own characteristics:
– Manufacturing PMI: Reflects the state of business activity in the manufacturing sector.
– Services PMI: Assesses business activity in the services sector.
– Composite PMI: Includes data from both the manufacturing and services sectors, providing an overall picture of economic activity.
Importance of the PMI for the Financial Market. For traders and other financial market participants, tracking the PMI index is important for several reasons. First, the PMI is a leading indicator that provides insight into the future state of the economy. An increase in the index indicates an expansion in economic activity, while a decline points to a contraction. Central Banks and government authorities use PMI data along with CPI and PPI to assess current and forecast future economic conditions and make monetary policy decisions. Additionally, monitoring the PMI allows financial market participants to make informed decisions and adapt their strategies based on current and expected economic conditions. For example, an increase in the Manufacturing PMI may boost interest in stocks of manufacturing companies, while a decline may push investors towards safe-haven assets.
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Undoubtedly, each of the aforementioned indices is important and useful on its own. However, their combined use helps traders and investors more accurately forecast medium- and long-term trends, increases the profitability of their work, and reduces financial risks.
Also, economic indicator readings help predict Central Bank decisions, which can be effectively used in short-term trading immediately before and after these regulators' meetings. It is also worth noting the benefit of these metrics not only for currency, stock, and commodity traders but also for those involved in investing and trading in the cryptocurrency market. For example, the economic situation in the US and the actions of the Fed have a powerful impact on the investment and risk appetites of market participants, which in turn leads to ups and downs in the digital assets market. Thus, it can be confidently asserted that understanding CPI, PPI, and PMI is key to successful investment and trading decisions and strategies.
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