The week of July 13–17 was dominated by a sharp US–Iran re-escalation: Washington carried out a seventh consecutive night of strikes on Iran, Tehran retaliated against US allies across the Gulf (Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan), and Hormuz tanker traffic collapsed again. Brent surged over 12% to five-week highs above $88. US CPI and PPI both posted their steepest declines since April 2020, briefly reviving Fed-easing hopes, but Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish congressional testimony pushed back hard, insisting “prices are too high.” Gold and silver fell sharply despite the war, unable to draw a safe-haven bid as hawkish Fed repricing dominated, while Bitcoin and Ethereum gave back mid-week gains as risk appetite soured. Markets now turn to Thursday's ECB meeting and Friday's flash PMIs.
Closing prices, Friday, July 17, 2026:
EUR/USD – 1.1439 | Brent Crude – $88.10 | Gold (XAU/USD) – $4,018.80 | Silver (XAG/USD) – $56.33 | Bitcoin – $63,150 | Ethereum – $1,815
Key calendar, July 20–25: Monday – PBoC rate decision; Canada and New Zealand CPI. Tuesday – UK labour data and CPI; Eurozone Bank Lending Survey. Wednesday – light calendar, focus on US–Iran developments. Thursday – ECB rate decision and Lagarde press conference; Australian labour data; Japan CPI. Friday – flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs (Germany, Eurozone, UK, US); UK Retail Sales; US New Home Sales. Ongoing Iran war and Hormuz shipping disruption remain the key unscheduled catalyst.
EUR/USD
Closed at 1.1439 (prev. week 1.1414; 52-week range 1.1325–1.2079; daily rating: Neutral). The euro squeezed out a modest weekly gain, briefly touching its strongest level since June 19, as much softer US CPI/PPI weighed on the dollar and reinforced ECB tightening bets. Renewed Iran strikes and firmer oil capped the advance, and Warsh's hawkish testimony helped the dollar claw back losses into the close. The pair remains boxed inside a bear-flag pattern below 1.1480.
Thursday's ECB meeting is pivotal: rates should stay unchanged, but a hawkish Lagarde on energy-driven inflation risk could push the euro toward 1.1500–1.1575; a growth-focused tone paired with oil-driven dollar demand exposes 1.1380–1.1325.
Resistance: 1.1480, 1.1550, 1.1650 │ Support: 1.1380, 1.1325 (52-week low), 1.1280
Baseline view: cautiously neutral-to-bearish while Middle East-driven dollar demand offsets ECB tightening bets. Base case: 1.1325–1.1550.
Brent Crude Oil
Closed at $88.10 (prev. week $76.01; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41; daily/weekly: Buy, monthly: Buy). Brent rocketed to five-week highs as the conflict widened dramatically – Iran struck Gulf states and a Kuwaiti desalination plant, the US carried out a seventh straight night of strikes, and Hormuz transits fell to a fraction of pre-war levels. The House also advanced a $95bn Iran war spending package.
With no ceasefire in sight, the bias stays firmly bullish; further escalation opens $90–94, while a credible diplomatic breakthrough could trigger a sharp reversal to $80–82.
Resistance: $90.00, $92.00, $94.00 │ Support: $84.00, $80.00, $76.00
Baseline view: bullish while the Iran war escalates and Hormuz traffic stays disrupted. Base case: $80–$94.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Closed at $4,018.80 (prev. week $4,113.70; 52-week range $3,247.86–$5,595.46; daily: Sell, weekly: Sell, monthly: Neutral). Gold posted its biggest weekly drop in six weeks, briefly touching an eight-month low near $3,940 before a modest bounce. Despite the sharply escalating war, gold failed to draw safe-haven flows as oil-driven inflation fears and Warsh's hawkish tone lifted real yields and the dollar.
The technical picture stays weak, capped below the 21- and 50-day moving averages. A break of $3,940 opens $3,850–3,900; a recovery above $4,080 would ease pressure and expose $4,250.
Resistance: $4,080, $4,180, $4,250 │ Support: $3,940, $3,900, $3,850
Baseline view: cautiously bearish as hawkish Fed repricing outweighs geopolitical demand. Base case: $3,900–$4,180.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Closed at $56.33 (prev. week $60.17; 52-week range $35.28–$121.67; daily: Sell, monthly: Sell). Silver extended its slide for a second week, down over 6% and touching a fresh year-to-date low near $54.80, as the same hawkish Fed dynamics hitting gold weighed even harder on the more volatile metal. The gold/silver ratio widened to around 71 from 68–69 the week before, despite a projected sixth consecutive year of global supply deficit.
Resistance: $60.00, $63.00, $65.00 │ Support: $54.40, $52.00, $48.60
Baseline view: bearish after breaking key support and posting a fresh yearly low. Base case: $52–$60.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Closed near $63,150 (prev. week $63,019; 52-week range ~$57,700–$126,200; daily: Neutral). Bitcoin briefly broke above $65,000 mid-week before giving back the gains as the widening Iran conflict dulled risk appetite into the weekend, ending roughly flat on the week. The Fear & Greed Index remains subdued, and the stalled CLARITY Act stays the key regulatory swing factor; ETF flow trends will again be closely watched.
A weekly close above $65,000 would reopen $68,000; a break of $62,000 exposes $60,000 and the recent low near $57,700.
Resistance: $65,000, $68,000, $70,000 │ Support: $62,000, $60,000, $57,700 (recent low)
Baseline view: neutral-to-cautiously-bullish, contingent on ETF flows and broader risk sentiment. Base case: $60,000–$68,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Closed near $1,815 (prev. week $1,795; 52-week range $1,388–$4,956; daily: Neutral). ETH briefly cleared $1,900 mid-week before slipping back alongside Bitcoin, ending with a modest net gain. The $1,800–1,850 zone is the key near-term battleground; the Ethereum Foundation's restructuring and Vitalik Buterin's “Lean Ethereum” roadmap remain the medium-term narrative drivers.
A confirmed close above $1,900 opens $2,000; a reversal below $1,800 reopens $1,650–1,600.
Resistance: $1,900, $2,000, $2,100 │ Support: $1,800, $1,650, $1,600
Baseline view: cautiously neutral while ETH consolidates around its recent range. Base case: $1,650–$1,900.
Conclusion
The Middle East conflict remains the dominant cross-asset driver, alongside Thursday's ECB meeting and Friday's flash PMIs. EUR/USD at 1.1439: a hawkish ECB could extend gains toward 1.1500–1.1575, while oil-driven dollar strength favors 1.1325–1.1380. Brent at $88.10: continued Hormuz disruption keeps the bias bullish toward $90–94. Gold at $4,018.80: base case $3,900–$4,180. Silver at $56.33: base case $52–$60. Bitcoin at $63,150: base case $60,000–$68,000. Ethereum at $1,815: base case $1,650–$1,900.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
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