The previous trading week ended against the backdrop of holiday-thinned liquidity and shifting rate expectations after key central-bank decisions. The Bank of Japan delivered another step in policy normalisation, while markets continued to reprice the global rates path into year-end, keeping FX, commodities and crypto sensitive to incoming macro data.
By the close of trading on Friday, 19 December, EUR/USD was trading near 1.1710, Brent crude oil finished around 60.5 dollars per barrel, bitcoin rebounded to the 88,000 area, while gold closed at 4,387.30.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD currency pair is ending the trading week with a mild pullback near 1.1710 after failing to hold above the 1.18 area earlier in the week. Moving averages continue to point to a moderately bullish bias, but momentum has cooled, and the pair is increasingly dependent on US data surprises in thin pre-holiday conditions.
As part of the EUR/USD forecast for the trading week, an attempt to resume growth and test the resistance area near 1.1750-1.1800 is expected. From this zone, a corrective pullback may develop, with a potential continuation of the decline toward the support area near 1.1680-1.1620. A deeper correction could extend toward 1.1580-1.1520.
An additional signal favouring a correction in the EUR/USD pair will be a test of the resistance line on the relative strength indicator (RSI). A strong rally and a breakout above 1.1840-1.1900 would cancel the correction scenario and indicate a breakout of resistance with further growth toward 1.2000. A breakdown and consolidation below 1.1520 would confirm the development of a more pronounced bearish movement.
Baseline view: neutral to moderately bullish while EUR/USD remains above 1.1620-1.1580.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin BTC/USD is ending the trading week near the 88,000 area after a volatile rebound from the mid-85,000s. The market remains highly sensitive to liquidity conditions into Christmas, with sharp intraday swings still possible even without major headlines. Moving averages point to a cautious to slightly bearish tone, but the broader structure still resembles consolidation rather than a clean trend.
As part of the Bitcoin forecast for the trading week, an attempt at a bullish correction and a test of the resistance area near 89,500-92,000 should be expected. From this zone, a downward rebound and a continuation of the decline remain possible, with downside targets near 88,000-86,000 and further toward 85,000-83,000.
An additional signal favouring a decline in BTC/USD quotes will be a rebound from the resistance line on the relative strength indicator (RSI). A strong rally and a breakout above the 95,000-100,000 area would cancel the bearish scenario and indicate renewed growth with higher upside targets.
Baseline view: neutral to slightly bearish while BTC/USD remains below 92,000-95,000.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude oil prices are ending the trading week near 60.5 dollars per barrel after a modest recovery. Despite the bounce, moving averages still indicate a bearish trend, with the market focusing on demand uncertainty and year-end positioning, while headline risk around supply and geopolitics remains a constant swing factor.
As part of the Brent forecast for the upcoming trading week, an attempt at a bullish correction and a test of the resistance area near 61.5-63.0 should be expected. From this area, a downward rebound and a continuation of the decline toward the support zone near 60.0-59.0 may follow. A breakdown below 57.5 would confirm the development of a stronger bearish trend with potential targets in the mid-50s.
An additional signal favouring a decline in oil prices will be a test of the resistance line on the relative strength indicator (RSI). A strong rise and a breakout above 65.0-66.0 would cancel the bearish scenario and indicate a breakout of resistance with further recovery toward the upper 60s.
Baseline view: neutral to mildly bearish while Brent remains below 63.0-65.0.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold XAU/USD is ending the trading week near record highs, with the market closing around 4,387.30. The asset remains inside a bullish channel. Moving averages confirm a stable uptrend, while any pullbacks continue to attract buyers, especially with year-end liquidity reducing the depth of order books.
As part of the gold price forecast for the trading week, an attempt at a short-term bearish correction and a test of the support area near 4,360-4,320 should be expected. From this zone, an upward rebound and a continuation of growth toward the resistance area near 4,400-4,450 are likely. A breakout above this zone would open the way toward the 4,500 area.
An additional signal favouring growth in gold prices will be a rebound from the bullish trend line on the relative strength indicator (RSI). A decline and a breakout below the 4,280-4,250 area would cancel the bullish scenario and indicate the risk of a deeper correction.
Baseline view: buy on dips while gold remains above 4,280-4,250.
Conclusion
The week of 22-26 December is expected to be shaped by holiday-thinned liquidity and a narrow set of high-impact releases, with the main focus on US data (GDP update and PCE inflation) and confidence indicators, plus selected UK and Japan prints. EUR/USD retains a constructive tone but may trade in wider intraday swings due to thin conditions. Bitcoin remains in a volatile consolidation, with liquidity a key driver of moves. Brent’s rebound looks corrective unless bulls reclaim higher resistance zones. Gold remains the strongest trend, supported by demand for hedges and the market’s focus on the 2026 rates path.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
