The week of June 8–12 delivered a string of decisive macro events. May CPI (June 10) confirmed headline inflation at 4.2% YoY – its highest since April 2023 – driven by a 23.5% energy surge, while core CPI rose only 0.2% MoM (vs. 0.3% forecast), a partial relief signal. May PPI (June 12) surged to 6.5% YoY, above the 6.4% consensus. The ECB hiked 25bps on June 12 – its first increase since 2023 – lifting the deposit rate to 2.25%, while raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 3.0% and trimming GDP to 0.8%. On geopolitics, US–Iran diplomacy swung between hope and friction: Trump cancelled overnight strikes on June 12, stated a deal was “within reach,” global equities rallied – yet Iranian drones continued targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on June 13, and Trump accused Tehran of negotiating “in bad faith.” Pakistani mediators say a “final agreed text” exists; Iran calls it “closer than ever” – but no signing has occurred.
Closing prices, Friday June 12, 2026:
EUR/USD – 1.1578 | Brent Crude – $87.33 | Gold (XAU/USD) – $4,238.80 | Silver (XAG/USD) – $67.97 | Bitcoin – $63,500 | Ethereum – $1,665
Key macro calendar, June 15–19: Monday: NY Empire State; Eurozone trade balance. Tuesday: US Retail Sales; UK CPI; Canada CPI. Wednesday: FOMC decision (2:00 PM ET) – hold at 3.50–3.75% (97% probability, CME FedWatch); dot plot – Kevin Warsh’s debut as Fed Chair; Fed press conference (2:30 PM ET). Thursday: Jobless Claims; Philadelphia Fed; Bank of England decision; Eurozone CPI (final). Friday: US Housing Starts; University of Michigan Sentiment (June preliminary).
EUR/USD
EUR/USD closed at 1.1578 (prev. week close 1.1521; 52-week range 1.1343–1.2079; daily rating: Strong Sell). The pair recovered modestly from its June 8 low of 1.1508, lifted by Friday’s Iran deal rally which pushed European equities ~1.8% higher and softened the dollar. The ECB’s 25bps hike failed to sustain a euro rally: Lagarde’s simultaneous inflation upgrade and growth downgrade left the pair trapped between two hawkish central banks.
The FOMC dot plot on Wednesday is the week’s defining EUR/USD driver. A neutral hold with one projected 2026 hike (base case) keeps the pair in 1.1540–1.1640. A hawkish dot plot projecting two hikes targets 1.1440–1.1460. A dovish surprise opens 1.1700+. A signed Iran deal this weekend reduces the energy-inflation premium priced into the ECB’s new forecasts, euro-positive toward 1.1650–1.1700.
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1640, 1.1700 │ Support: 1.1520, 1.1483–1.1497, 1.1440
Baseline view: Neutral with slight negative bias. The dot plot is the week’s pivot. A hawkish Warsh debut tests 1.1440–1.1460; a dovish surprise or signed Iran deal targets 1.1700. Base case: 1.1500–1.1640.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent closed at $87.33 (prev. week close $93.09; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41; daily signal: Strong Sell). Brent shed ~6.2% on the week, its sharpest drop since April, driven by Trump’s cancellation of overnight Iran strikes on Thursday and signals that a deal was near. The circulating 14-point draft includes Iran’s commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. However, Trump denied specific terms, US forces shot down Iranian drones on June 13, and no MOU has been signed.
The Iran/Hormuz binary dominates everything. A signed deal before Monday’s open gaps Brent toward $82–$84; deal collapse or renewed strikes re-targets $92–$95. The FOMC dot plot is secondary: a hawkish outcome strengthens USD, marginally bearish for oil.
Resistance: $90.00, $93.00, $96.00 │ Support: $84.00, $82.00, $78.00
Baseline view: Bearish on Iran deal momentum. A signed MOU gaps toward $82–$85 and caps the upside; deal collapse resets to $92+. Base case: $83–$92, deal-outcome dependent.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold closed at $4,238.80 (prev. week close $4,365.30; 52-week range $3,247.86–$5,595.46; daily rating: Strong Sell). Gold recovered from a Thursday intraday low near $4,072 as Iran deal optimism lifted risk appetite and weighed on the dollar, ending the week down ~2.9%. The metal is ~24% below January’s all-time high of $5,595 but remains +27% year-on-year. Goldman Sachs ($5,400) and JPMorgan ($5,900) year-end targets remain intact.
The dot plot on Wednesday is the primary catalyst. A neutral one-hike projection keeps gold in $4,150–$4,300. An aggressive hawkish dot targets $4,072–$4,100. A signed Iran deal deflates the energy-shock safe-haven premium, pulling toward $4,100–4,150. A deal collapse re-activates safe-haven demand toward $4,400.
Resistance: $4,300, $4,380–4,400, $4,480 │ Support: $4,150–4,170, $4,072–4,100, $4,000
Baseline view: Cautiously bearish short-term. Critical support at $4,100–4,150 must hold. Dot plot and Iran deal both carry asymmetric risk – either could gap gold $100–$150 on day one. Long-term bull case ($5,400+) remains valid. Base case: $4,100–4,350.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver closed at $67.97 (prev. week close $69.10; 52-week range $35.28–$121.67; daily rating: Strong Sell). Silver fell ~1.6% on the week and is heading for its fifth consecutive weekly decline, down ~44% from its 52-week high. Both its precious-metal driver (rate/dollar pressure) and industrial driver (weak Chinese demand data) are aligned to the downside. The gold/silver ratio has widened sharply. Silver held near $67–$68 on Friday as Iran deal optimism provided temporary support.
A hawkish FOMC dot plot is the key downside risk, potentially sending silver toward $63–$65. A signed Iran deal reduces inflation-premium pressure; combined with softer dollar, a bounce toward $70–$72 is possible. China trade data (released this week) and any recovery in industrial activity remain secondary silver-positive catalysts.
Resistance: $69.50–$70.00, $72.00–$73.00, $75.00 │ Support: $65.50–$66.00, $63.00, $60.00
Baseline view: Bearish. Structure remains severely damaged – every prior support is now resistance. Hawkish dot + deal failure = $63–$65; soft dot + Iran deal = $70–$72. Base case: $65–$70.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin settled near $63,500 (prev. week close $61,400; 52-week range ~$60,000–$126,198; daily rating: Sell). BTC recovered ~3.4% on the week, lifted by the soft core CPI (0.2% MoM) and Friday’s Iran deal risk-on rally. Cumulative Bitcoin ETF outflows over four consecutive weeks exceeded $5.4 billion, with BlackRock IBIT alone losing $1.34B last week. The 200-day MA (~$78,000) and 50-day MA (~$74,700) remain distant overhead barriers. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 8 – deep Extreme Fear.
The FOMC dot plot (Wednesday) is the defining event. CME FedWatch shows 97.1% probability of a hold at 3.50–3.75%. A neutral one-hike dot is the base case and consolidates BTC in $62,000–$66,000. A hawkish two-hike projection retests the $60,000 critical floor. A dovish no-hike surprise is the strongest near-term bull trigger, targeting $68,000–$70,000. A signed Iran deal and the advancing CLARITY Act are secondary positive catalysts.
Resistance: $65,000–$66,000, $68,000, $70,000 │ Support: $62,000, $60,000 (critical floor), $57,000
Baseline view: Cautiously neutral, FOMC-dependent. Neutral dot holds $61,500–$66,000; hawkish dot retests $60,000; dovish surprise targets $68,000+. CLARITY Act progress is the most powerful standalone upside catalyst. Base case: $61,000–$66,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Ethereum closed near $1,665 (prev. week close $1,550; 52-week range $1,388–$4,956; daily rating: Strong Sell). ETH gained ~7.4% on the week, recovering from cycle lows on the soft core CPI and Iran deal optimism. Despite the bounce, ETH remains ~66% below its August 2025 all-time high, spot ETH ETFs have recorded $880M in outflows over four weeks, and the ETH/BTC ratio continues to deteriorate. The 50-day EMA (~$2,175) and 200-day MA (~$2,200) remain distant overhead resistance.
The FOMC dot plot drives the risk-on/risk-off binary. A neutral outcome consolidates the recovery toward $1,700–$1,750. A hawkish dot risks a retest of $1,500–1,550, with the $1,388 52-week low as a tail risk. The CLARITY Act – directly addressing ETH’s commodity vs. security classification – remains the most asymmetric ETH-specific catalyst. Standard Chartered maintains an ETH target of $4,000 end-2026.
Resistance: $1,700–$1,750, $1,850, $2,000 │ Support: $1,600, $1,500, $1,388 (52-week low)
Baseline view: Cautiously neutral. Neutral FOMC consolidates toward $1,700–$1,750; hawkish dot retests $1,500. CLARITY Act and signed Iran deal are the two most powerful upside catalysts. Base case: $1,580–$1,750.
Conclusion
The week of June 15–19 is dominated by a single event of historic significance: the FOMC decision and dot plot on Wednesday June 17 – Kevin Warsh’s debut as Fed Chair. The Iran/US peace deal is the week’s unscheduled wildcard: a signing before Monday’s open would gap Brent toward $82–$85, weaken the dollar, lift BTC and ETH, and soften gold. CME FedWatch shows 97.1% probability of a hold at 3.50–3.75% – the dot plot itself is the risk, not the decision.
EUR/USD at 1.1578: hawkish dot targets 1.1440; dovish surprise or Iran deal reopens 1.1700. Brent at $87.33: deal-driven binary – signed MOU toward $82–$85, collapse toward $92+. Gold at $4,238.80: base case $4,100–$4,350. Silver at $67.97: most vulnerable to hawkish FOMC; base case $65–$70. Bitcoin at $63,500: neutral dot holds range; hawkish dot retests $60,000. Ethereum at $1,665: CLARITY Act and neutral FOMC consolidate the week’s recovery.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds
ආපසු යන්න ආපසු යන්න
